Potential för ökad tillförsel av inhemsk biomassa i en växande svensk bioekonomi – en uppdatering

This study include an updated analysis of the potential increase in the supply of biomass from forest, agriculture and aquaculture in Sweden until 2030 and 2050, respectively. The study is based on a previous assessment from 2016 but where the potential of different categories of biomass feedstocks is revised according to new knowledge and changed conditions during the last five years. The estimated potentials include technical, economic and ecological restrictions. The potential increase in biomass supply until 2030 is estimated to, on average, 50 TWh/yr (41-59 TWh/yr), which is equivalent to the previous assessment from 2016. However, there are changes regarding the supply from different biomass categories where, for example, the potential in form of stumps has been excluded but where the potential in form of by-products from the forest industry has increased. Regarding agriculture-based biomass feedstocks, the potential of brushwood harvesting has been added whereas the potential in form of energy crops on cropland has been reduced. Forest-based biomass account for two thirds of the total biomass potential whereas agriculture-based account for one third. The potential increase in biomass supply until 2050 is estimated to, on average, 67 TWh/yr (56-79 TWh/yr), which is almost 20% lower than the previous assessment from 2016. The main reason for this is a reduced potential in form of energy crops on cropland. In this case, forest-based biomass account for 60% of the total biomass potential whereas agriculture-based account for 40%. The potential of aquatic-based biomass is estimated to be rather small, around 1 TWh/yr 2050, which is similar to the previous assessment. How large share of the estimated biomass potentials that will be realized depends mainly on the development of EU and national political incentives within energy, climate and agriculture policies during the coming years. (Less)