Social-environmental drivers inform strategic management of coral reefs in the Anthropocene

Without drastic efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate globalized stressors, tropical coral reefsare in jeopardy. Strategic conservation and management requires identification of the environmental and socioeconomic factors driving the persistence of scleractinian coralassemblages—the foundation speciesof coral reefecosystems. Here, we compiled coralabundance data from 2,584 Indo-Pacific reefsto evaluate the influence of 21 climate, social and environmental drivers on the ecology of reef coralassemblages. Higher abundances of framework-building coralswere typically associated with: weaker thermal disturbances and longer intervals for potential recovery; slower human population growth; reduced access by human settlementsand markets; and less nearby agriculture. We therefore propose a framework of three management strategies (protect, recover or transform) by considering: (1) if reefswere above or below a proposed threshold of >10% cover of the coraltaxa important for structural complexityand carbonate production; and (2) reefexposure to severe thermal stress during the 2014–2017 global coral bleachingevent. Our findings can guide urgent management efforts for coral reefs, by identifying key threats across multiple scales and strategic policy priorities that might sustain a network of functioning reefsin the Indo-Pacificto avoid ecosystem collapse.