DESAE PROGRAM FOR SYSTEMS STUDIES OF LONG-TERM GROWTH OF NUCLEAR POWER ARTICLES

The DESAE computer program has been developed, within the framework of the INPRO project implemented under IAEA aegis, as a program complexfor making predictive calculations of nuclear powergrowth. The main purpose of these calculations is to determine the most likely trends in the structural development and scales of the industry and the expected time frames when the new technologies will be needed. Their main benefit lies in the possibility of constructing a balanced picture, as close to reality as possible, of the future structure and developing on this basis a well-substantiated program for strategic scientific-technical policy. A brief presentation of a DESAE calculation of a scenario for nuclear powergrowth in the country up to 2100 is given. This scenario corresponds to the above-mentioned requirement of balance with respect to the consumption of natural uraniumas well as the amount of electricity and heat that will be required. The state of the energy marketis characterized by increasing strain. The growth of energy demand in developing