Modeling ammonia volatilization from urea application to agricultural soils in the DayCent model

Nitrogen (N) loss through ammonia $$({\mathrm{NH}}_{3})$$ volatilization in agricultural soils is a significant source of atmospheric $${\mathrm{NH}}_{3}$$ , contributing to low N use efficiency in crops, risk to human health, environmental pollution, and is an indirect source of nitrous oxide $$({\mathrm{N}}_{2}\mathrm{O})$$ emissions. Our objective was to develop an ammonia volatilization method within the DayCent ecosystem model that incorporates key 4R N management practices (right type, right rate, right placement, and right timing) that influence $${\mathrm{NH}}_{3}$$ volatilization associated with application of urea-based nitrogen fertilizers to agricultural soils. The $${\mathrm{NH}}_{3}$$ volatilization method was developed with Bayesian calibration using sampling importance resampling methods and Bayes factors to select the level of complexity in the model that best represents $${\mathrm{NH}}_{3}$$ volatilization given the observed data. The final model included urea hydrolysis and the influence of urease inhibitors; short-term soil pH changes following fertilization; fertilizer incorporation into the soil (mechanically and through irrigation/precipitation); and specification of the fertilizer placement method (i.e. broadcast vs. banding and surface vs incorporated). DayCent predicts $${\mathrm{NH}}_{3}$$ volatilization with a root-mean-squared error of 158 (95% interval ranging from 133 to 192), bias of 7 (95% interval ranging from − 106 to 102) g NH3-N ha−1 day−1, and with a Bayesian R2 value of 0.39 (95% interval ranging from 0.17 to 0.62). Furthermore, the model incorporates key management options influencing $${\mathrm{NH}}_{3}$$ volatilization related to placement method and fertilizer type with and without urease inhibitors that can be used to evaluate management and policy options for reducing losses of NH3 from urea fertilization.