The COVID-19 Incarceration Model: a tool for corrections staff to analyze outbreaks of COVID-19

Correctional facilities are at high risk of COVID-19 outbreaks due to the inevitable close contacts in the environment. Such facilities are a high priority in the public health response to the epidemic. We developed a user-friendly Excel spreadsheet model (building on the previously developed Recidiviz model) to analyze COVID-19 outbreaks in correctional facilities and the potential impact of prevention strategies - the COVID-19 Incarceration Model. The model requires limited inputs and can be used by non-modelers. The impact of a COVID-19 outbreak and mitigation strategies is illustrated for an example prison setting.