The Draupner Event: The Large Wave and the Emerging View

AbstractIn a parallel paper mainly focused on the meteorological and oceanographic aspects, the conditions were described for the storm during which the iconic Draupner wavewas recorded. Because of increased spatial resolution and improved model physics, the results provided new and previously unrecognized features of the storm, in particular of the wave spectra, features relevant for assessing the wave’s conditions nearby the Draupner platform. Starting from these, and after briefly summarizing the relevant information, the focus of this paper is on the nonlinear analysis of the local situation, with the main purpose of assessing if and how the conditions existed for the possible appearance of very large waves. An intensive analysis of the related probability is carried out, attacking the problem with two different statistical approaches, both briefly described: a completely new one working from the point of view of envelope heights, and a recent, though established, one based on space–time extreme wave...