S-curve Model of Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Development

It is widely recognized that different economic development stages are associated with distinctive patterns of energy consumption. Forecast of future energy consumption for an expected GDP per capita has been an intriguing subject for many economists, policy makers, and resource scientists worldwide. This article takes a pragmatic approach to the examination of intrinsic relations between energy consumption and economic development using the historical data of past 160 years from 18 developed countries and regions. This analysis shows that the relations between energy consumption and GDP can be described by an S-curve model. The patterns of energy consumption in different economic development stages, including agricultural, industrialized, and post-industrialized societies, are characterized by different transitional thresholds, which are here referred to as the takeoff point, turning point, and zero-growth point of the energy consumption per capita. A thorough discussion is given to the implications of these critical points in the curve. Using a mathematical model and the critical thresholds, the S-curve can be divided into four transitional phases: slow growing phase, rapid growing phase, growth declining phase, and stagnant phase. The analysis forms a foundation for forecast of energy demands in different development stages in different countries.