The role of synoptic processes in mudflow formation in the piedmont areas of Uzbekistan

Abstract. The purpose of this study is to understand atmospheric factors, which cause mudflowvariability on interannual and longer timescales, from local to synoptic scales. In a first step, historical data of mudflowoccurrences in Uzbekistan provided by the Centre of HydrometeorologicalService of the Republic of Uzbekistan (Uzhydromet) for more than 140 years were analysed. During the investigation period a total of about 3000 mudflowevents were observed with about 21 events per year on average. The majority of mudflowsoccur during the advection of westerlyairflow when moist air from central and southern Europe reaches Uzbekistan. This synoptic weather type (SWT) can be related to one of the 15 primary synoptic circulation types over central Asia (CA) and Uzbekistan, which were subjectively derived by Bugayev and Giorgio in the 1930s and 1940s. To understand the main atmospheric regimes steering the variability in mudflowoccurrences, we additionally applied an objective classification following the circulation weather type (CWT) approach. By means of the CWT approach, we found that on mudflowdays the frequencies of cyclonic (C), westerly(W), south- westerly(SW) and north- westerly(NW) stream flows are increased in comparison to the climatological frequency of the occurrence of these circulation weather patterns. Results confirm that CWT westerlyairflow initiates relatively more mudflowevents comparing to other CWTs in the study area. An integrated approach of the CWT classification and an antecedent daily rainfall model are combined together in logistic regression analysis to construct a mudflow-triggering precipitation threshold for every CWT class. In general W, SW and C weather types require less antecedent rainfall to trigger mudflowoccurrences in the study area. This technique is thus shown to be applicable to coarse-resolution climate model diagnostics.