Future-proofing conservation priorities for sea level rise in coastal urban ecosystems

Decision makers are calling for actionable science to protect coastal ecosystems from adverse impacts. Future sea level rise (SLR) is expected to alter the spatial configuration of coastal habitats and their services. Ensuring conservation efforts are in optimal areas can be achieved using systematic conservation planning, yet plans rarely address multiple goals and uncertainties. We developed and applied a novel multi-ecosystem approach for planning the conservation of coastal ecosystems under future SLR scenarios. Decision support tool Marxan was used to determine priority areas that incorporate habitat connectivity, SLR modelling scenarios and feasibility for conservation in urbanised Moreton Bay in Queensland, Australia, as a case-study. We found that planning based on present conditions will not adequately capture conservation priorities for the future, and has associated financial consequences. Priority conservation areas of Moreton Bay are not well aligned with current protected areas (<35%), with further misalignment for future scenarios. This study highlights the importance of a multi-ecosystem approach for protecting coastal habitats as well as leveraging the current management system. Our approach helps inform policy and guides conservation actions in urbanised coastal regions facing SLR.