The MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM model and scenarios for transition risk analysis

This report provides background information to the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM scenarios that were selected to support transition risk analysis for the Task-Force for Climate Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) Banking Pilot Phase II. The first part provides an overview of the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM integrated assessment model, its core methodology, main components and definitions. The second part discusses the selected scenarios and motivation for this selection. The selected scenario cover a range of emission reductions that vary in stringency and pace of emission reduction. We selected the following types of scenarios: Current policy scenarios that limit climate policy to currently implemented or announced policies (NPi: National implemented policies and NDC: Nationally Determined Contributions for 2030) and scenarios with immediate global climate action based on a carbon budget (Immediate2C and Immediate1p5C). Finally, scenarios with delayed global climate action scenarios based on carbon budgets (Delayed2C) and immediate global climate action based on a peak-temperature goal (LowCDR2C and LowCDR1p5C) represent cases with steep emission reductions either immediately or after 2030.