Mechanisms driving estuarine water quality: A 3D biogeochemical model for informed management

Estuaries are amongst the most productive marine ecosystems of the world but are also some of the most degraded due to coastal urban development. Sparse sampling of complex interactions between estuarine physics, sediment transport, chemistry, and biology limits understanding of the processes controlling estuarine water quality and confounds active management. We use a 3D coupled hydrodynamic, sediment and biogeochemical model to identify the key mechanisms driving fine-scale fluctuations in water quality in a temperate micro-tidal salt wedge estuary [Derwent Estuary, Tasmania]. Model results are dynamically consistent with relatively sparse monitoring data collected over a seasonal cycle and are considered to be a plausible hypothesis of sub-monitoring scale processes occurring in the estuary. The model shows enhanced mixing of nutrients across the pycnocline downstream of the salt wedge front that supports a persistent phytoplankton bloom. The length and flow regime of the estuary results in nutrient recycling and retention in the estuarine circulation driving a decline in bottom water dissolved oxygen in the mid- and upper-reaches. A budget analysis of modelled nitrogen suggests high levels of denitrification are critical to the maintenance of existing water quality. Active estuarine management focused on the improvement of bottom water dissolved oxygen for ecological health reasons must either concurrently reduce anthropogenic nitrogen loads or be sure to maintain high levels of microbial denitrification for net water quality improvement.