Reference Limits for Outlier Analyses in Randomized Clinical Trials

Background:Reference limits used in clinical medicine to screen and manage patients are typically developed nonparametrically using reference values from a limited number of healthy subjects using a 95th percentile reference interval. We have evaluated alternative methods of computation and the resulting limits for use in the analyses of treatment-emergent outliers in clinical trials.Methods:We developed a set of alternative reference limits for 38 laboratory analytes based on alternative statistical methods and assessed their relative performance in clinical trial analysis. Performance assessment was based on the clinical credibility of the limits, inferential statistical performance, consideration of incidences for the test drug and control (placebo) in cases where the drug was reasonably believed to be associated with a change in an analyte (positive cases), and in cases where prior analyses failed to demonstrate a change associated with the drug (negative cases).Results:Based on consideration of these...