Effects of Climate Change and Urban Development on Army Training Capabilities: Firing Ranges and Maneuver Areas

Abstract : Army stationing analyses have historically been conducted under the assumption that most conditions at and around installations will generally remain static. Previous optimal stationing analyses have resulted in substantial costs associated with moving units, constructing buildings and roads, and local investments in the development of off-post housing, shopping facilities, eating, and other businesses that provide quality of life for soldiers and their families. In reality, the capacity of the natural, social, and built infrastructure changes over time, and, this non-stationarity should be considered in stationing analyses to: (1) avoid premature abandonment of expensive buildings and associated infrastructure, and (2) avoid costly realignments to locations where capacity is being adversely affected by change. This work documents efforts completed in FY14 that began to investigate how potential changes associated with climate and urban development might affect the ability of Army installations to continue to conduct training on firing ranges and in maneuver areas.