The role of elections as drivers of tropical deforestation

Tropical forests support immense biodiversity and provide essential ecosystem services for billions of people. Despite this value, tropical deforestation continues at a high rate. Emerging evidence suggests that elections can play an important role in shaping deforestation, for instance by incentivising politicians to allow increased utilisation of tropical forests in return for political support and votes. Nevertheless, the role of elections as a driver of deforestation has not been comprehensively tested at broad geographic scales. Here, we created an annual database from 2001 to 2018 on political elections and forest loss for 55 tropical nations and modelled the effect of elections on deforestation. In total, 1.5 million km2 of forest was lost during this time period, and the rate of deforestation increased in 37 (67%) of the analysed countries. Deforestation was significantly lower in years with presidential or lower chamber elections compared to non-election years, which is in contrast to previous local-scale studies. Moreover, deforestation was significantly higher in presidential or lower chamber elections that are competitive (i.e. when the opposition can participate in elections and has a legitimate chance to gain governmental power) compared to uncompetitive elections. Our results document a pervasive loss of tropical forests and suggest that competitive elections are potential drivers of deforestation. We recommend that organisations monitoring election transparency and fairness should also monitor environmental impacts such as forest loss, habitat destruction and resource exploitation. This would benefit the tracking of potential illegal vote buying with natural resources.