Methodology to Estimate System Schedule and Cost Risk Based on Historical Systems Data

Systems Engineering has, as a primary objective, th e imperative to provide systems that meet performance requirements while adhering to program schedule and cost constraints . Conventional programmatic risk analysis methodologies rely on in-depth knowledge of internal program risk factors, which, if known, are often only accessible to a select few within the program. Others who have a stake in the expected performance of the project are thus unable to accurately estimate and predict cost and schedule. One way to address this issue is to utilize historical cost and schedule pe rformance data for similar programs to estimate future performance of a current program. Using this approach, a methodology was developed to estimate the likely cost growth of cur rent fighter programs by comparing them to past US defense programs. This methodology offers the ability to estimate expected cost and schedule growth by placing a program in a historical context of past defense acquisition programs. The methodology was enabled by a database of historical program cost and schedule information. The development of normalization techniques and examples of the application of this methodology are presented. No s ingle analysis method or relationship appeared to be conclusively best; however, together the analyses provided a reasonable range of cost growth estimates. The methodology can be applied by Systems Engineers across a wide range of programs at any stage in their life cycle, correlating their progress to date, and enabling estimates of future performance costs and schedules, and associated risks.