Implementation of Tropical Cyclone Detection Scheme to CCAM model for Seasonel Tropical Cyclone Prediction over the Vietnam East Sea

This study has selected a vortex tracking algorithmscheme for simulating the activity of tropical cyclonein the Vietnam East Sea by CCAM model. The results show that the CCAM model is able to simulate well the large scale in each month through a reasonable description of the movement rules of the tropical cyclonein the study area. Then, this vortex tracking algorithmscheme was applied to test the seasonal forecast with the outputs of the CCAM model with a resolution of 20km for September 2018 and October 2018. The obtaining results are forecasted quite closely in terms of both quantity and high potential occurrence areas of the tropical cyclonewhen compared with reality. In particular, for October 2018, although the activity area of the tropical cyclone- YUTU is significantly different from the multi-year average activity position, the seasonal forecast results are obtained from the 120 members of the CCAM model captured this difference. This suggests that it is possible to apply the CCAM model in combination with the selected vortex tracking algorithmscheme for the seasonal forecast of the tropical cycloneover the Vietnam East Sea region in the future.