A nomogram of clinical and biologic factors to predict survival in children newly diagnosed with high-risk neuroblastoma: An International Neuroblastoma Risk Group project.

Background Long-term outcome remains poor for children with high-risk neuroblastoma (five-year overall survival [OS] ∼50%). Our objectives were to (a) identify prognostic biomarkers and apply them in a nomogram to identify the subgroup of ultra-high-risk patients at highest risk of disease progression/death, for whom novel frontline therapy is urgently needed; and (b) validate the nomogram in an independent cohort. Methods A total of 1820 high-risk patients (≥18 months old with metastatic neuroblastoma), diagnosed 1998-2015, from the International Neuroblastoma Risk Groups (INRG) Data Commons were analyzed in a retrospective cohort study. Using multivariable Cox regression of OS from diagnosis, a nomogram was created from prognostic biomarkers to predict three-year OS. External validation was performed using the SIOPEN HR-NBL1 trial cohort (n = 521), evidenced by receiver operating characteristic curves. Results The nomogram, including MYCN status (P 82 points; 58% ± 1% for those ≤82 points). Median follow-up time was 5.5 years (range, 0-14.1). Conclusions In high-risk neuroblastoma, a novel, publicly available nomogram using prognostic biomarkers (MYCN status, LDH, presence of bone marrow metastases; https://neuroblastoma.shinyapps.io/High-Risk-Neuroblastoma-Nomogram/) has the flexibility to apply a clinically suitable and context-specific cutoff to identify patients at highest risk of death. This will facilitate testing urgently needed new frontline treatment options to improve outcome for these children.