A comparison of three transformation pathways towards a sustainable European society - An integrated analysis from an energy system perspective

Abstract An energy system transition in the European Union is required to meet the decarbonisation targets determined in the Paris Agreement. To realise this transition, a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of at least 80% from 1990 levels by 2050 is required. However, ambitions are being raised towards carbon neutrality. Such transition will likely imply deep changes across all sectors of the EU economies and societies. The impacts on these sectors need to be analysed with a multi-disciplinary approach, to unveil cross-sectoral risks and opportunities of the transition. Additionally, the pace and effectiveness of the transition may be affected by technical and economic drivers within the EU. In this paper, we soft-link three modelling frameworks specialised in assessing technology transitions, spatially-disaggregated health impacts of air pollutants and economic impacts and we apply them to the study of deep decarbonisation pathways for the EU. An energy system model, TIMES PanEU, is soft linked with an impact assessment model, EcoSense, and with a general equilibrium model, NEWAGE. The application looks at three clearly distinguished but likely paths: one where the decarbonisation effort is mostly undertaken by decarbonisation of the energy supply; one where consumers take on a more active role in the decarbonisation, instead; one where ambitions are raised and all sectors of the economy must act together to achieve the targets. In the specific application, it is concluded that 80% reduction is achievable with a decentralised, demand driven system as well as with a centralised one, where the decarbonisation effort mainly comes from the supply side. On the other hand, to achieve a more ambitious reduction target, a broader technology mix and also the effort from both supply and demand side will be required. The synergy between the sectors, especially for the utilisation of the domestic sources such as biomass, will be a decisive factor for the direction of the energy transition.