Global Energy Interconnection: A scenario analysis based on the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM Model

The concept of Global Energy Interconnection (GEI) proposed by Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization (GEIDCO) integrates smart grids, ultrahigh voltage (UHV) transmission and renewable energy access (solar, wind and hydro). Ultrahigh Voltage (UHV) lines could transmit renewable power from one world region to another with lower losses than current high voltage systems. In December 2019, the Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization (GEIDCO), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published a report titled “Research Report on Global Energy Interconnection for Address Climate Change”. In that report, two scenarios for Global Energy Interconnection are presented, consistent with limiting climate change to 1.5 and 2 degrees. These scenarios were limited to the GEI interconnections as concretely proposed by GEIDCO. This report provides an uncertainty analysis for the GEI scenarios, especially focusing on uncapping the GEI interconnections to explore the potential for electricity transmission between world regions. In order to further investigate the benefits of renewable electricity trade via UHV transmission lines, in this study we designed two new scenarios with uncapped transmission capacity of UHV lines by using IIASA’s integrated assessment modeling (IAM) tool, the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM model. Based on these scenarios, we find several insights: first, there exits more needs of electricity trade between the model regions than what the selected UHV projects can offer. This implies that new UHV transmission projects might need to be investigated. Second, renewable electricity trade by UHV transmission lines could facilitate higher production of renewable electricity. The more trade is realized, the more renewable electricity is produced. In addition, the renewable electricity trade could help the reduction of CO2 emissions by boosting the global consumption of renewable electricity.