Effects of local climate on loggerhead hatchling production in Brazil: Implications from climate change

Sea turtleeggs are heavily influenced by the environment in which they incubate, including effects on hatching success and hatchlingviability ( hatchlingproduction). It is crucial to understand how the hatchlingproduction of sea turtlesis influenced by local climate and how potential changes in climate may impact future hatchlingproduction. Generalized Additive Modelswere used to determine the relationship of six climatic variables at different temporal scaleson loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) hatchlingproduction at seventeen nesting beaches in Bahia, Espirito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Using extreme and conservative climate change scenariosthroughout the 21st century, potential impacts on future hatching success (the number of hatched eggs in a nest) were predicted using the climatic variable(s) that best described hatchlingproduction at each nesting beach. Air temperature and precipitation were found to be the main drivers of hatchlingproduction throughout Brazil. CMIP5 climate projections are for a warming of air temperature at all sites throughout the 21st century, while projections for precipitation vary regionally. The more tropical nesting beaches in Brazil, such as those in Bahia, are projected to experience declines in hatchlingproduction, while the more temperate nesting beaches, such as those in Rio de Janeiro, are projected to experience increases in hatchlingproduction by the end of the 21st century.