An insula-driven network computes decision uncertainty and promotes abstinence in chronic cocaine users

The anterior insular cortex (AIC) and its interconnected brain regions have been associated with both addiction and decision-making under uncertainty. However, the causal interactions in this uncertainty-encoding neurocircuitry and how these neural dynamics impact relapse remain elusive. Here, we used model-based fMRI to measure choice uncertainty in a motor decision task in 61 individuals with cocaine use disorder (CUD) and 25 healthy controls. CUD participants were assessed before discharge from a residential treatment program and followed for up to 24 weeks. We found that choice uncertainty was tracked by the AIC, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC), and ventral striatum (VS), across participants. Stronger activations in these regions measured pre-discharge predicted longer abstinence after discharge in individuals with CUD. Dynamic causal modelling revealed an AIC-to-dACC directed connectivity modulated by uncertainty in controls, but a dACC-to-AIC connectivity in CUD participants. This reversal was mostly driven by early-relapsers (