Source modelling and strong ground motion simulations for the January 24, 2020, Mw 6.8 Elazığ earthquake, Turkey

On 24 January 2020 an M w 6.8 earthquake occurred at 20:55 local time (17:55 UTC) in eastern Turkey, close to the town of Sivrice in the Elazig province, causing widespread considerable seismic damage in buildings. In this study, we analyse the main features of the rupture process and the seismic ground shaking during the Elazig earthquake. We first use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) interferograms (Sentinel-1 satellites) to constrain the fault geometry and the coseismic slip distribution of the causative fault segment. Then, we utilize this information to analyse the ground motion characteristics of the main shock in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and spectral accelerations. The absence of seismic registrations in near-field for this earthquake imposes major constraints on the computation of seismic ground motion estimations in the study area. To do this, we have used a stochastic finite-fault simulation method to generate high-frequency ground motions synthetics for the M w 6.8 Elazig 2020 earthquake. Finally, we evaluate the potential state of stress of the unruptured portions of the causative fault segment as well as of adjacent segments, using the Coulomb stress failure function variations. Modelling of geodetic data shows that the 2020 Elazig earthquake ruptured two major slip patches (for a total length of about 40 km) located along the Puturge segment of the well-known left-lateral strike-slip East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), with up to 2.3 m of slip and an estimated geodetic moment of 1.70 $\,\, \times $ 10 19 Nm (equivalent to a M w 6.8). The position of the hypocentre supports the evidence of marked WSW rupture directivity during the main shock. In terms of ground motion characteristics, we observe that the high-frequency stochastic ground motion simulations have a good capability to reproduce the source complexity and capture the ground motion attenuation decay as a function of distance, up to the 200 km. We also demonstrate that the design spectra corresponding to 475 yr return period, provided by the new Turkish building code is not exceeded by the simulated seismograms in the epicentral area where there are no strong motion stations and no recordings available. Finally, based on the Coulomb stress distribution computation, we find that the Elazig main shock increased the stress level of the westernmost part of the Puturge fault and of the adjacent Palu segment and as a result of an off-fault lobe.