The potential for structural errors in emergent constraints
2021
Abstract. Studies of emergent constraints have frequently proposed that a single
metric can constrain future responses of the Earth system to anthropogenic
emissions. Here, we illustrate that strong relationships between observables
and future climate across an ensemble can arise from common structural model
assumptions with few degrees of freedom. Such cases have the potential to
produce strong yet overconfident constraints when processes are represented
in a common, oversimplified fashion throughout the ensemble. We consider
these issues in the context of a collection of published constraints and
argue that although emergent constraints are potentially powerful tools for
understanding ensemble response variation and relevant observables, their
naive application to reduce uncertainties in unknown climate responses
could lead to bias and overconfidence in constrained projections. The
prevalence of this thinking has led to literature in which statements are made on
the probability bounds of key climate variables that were confident yet
inconsistent between studies. Together with statistical robustness and a
mechanism, assessments of climate responses must include multiple lines of
evidence to identify biases that can arise from shared, oversimplified
modelling assumptions that impact both present and future climate
simulations in order to mitigate against the influence of shared structural
biases.
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