Prognostic factors of chronic pulmonary aspergillosis: A retrospective cohort of 264 patients from Japan

Background Chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA) develops in various underlying pulmonary conditions. There is scarce data evaluating interstitial lung disease (ILD)/abnormalities (ILA) as such conditions, and it has not been explored much whether non-tuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease (NTM-PD) is a prognostic factor for mortality in CPA patients. Few reports had investigated prognostic factors of CPA including underlying pulmonary conditions. Objectives To explore prognostic factors of CPA including pulmonary conditions. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 264 CPA patients from a center for pulmonary aspergillosis in Japan. Results Survival rates were 78.7%, 61.0%, and 47.4% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Of 264 patients, 53 (20.1%) and 87 (33.1%) were complicated with ILA and NTM-PD. Several independent prognostic factors were identified by multivariate Cox proportional analysis: ILA (HR 1.76, 95%CI 1.06–2.92, p = 0.029), age (1.05, 1.02–1.08, p<0.001), male sex (2.48, 1.34–4.59, p = 0.004), body mass index of <18.5 kg/m2 (1,87, 1.20–2.90, p = 0.005), presence of aspergilloma (1.59, 1.04–2.45, p = 0.033), and lower serum albumin (0.56, 0.38–0.83, p = 0.004). NTM-PD was not associated with higher mortality (0.85, 0.52–1.38, p = 0.51). Conclusions The poor prognosis of CPA and several prognostic factors were revealed. Early diagnosis and intervention is required with reference to such factors.