Managing Scientific Uncertainty for Resource Management Planning in New Zealand

Understanding and managing uncertaintyis vital so that policy-makers can take research outputs from multiple technical disciplines and evaluate the uncertaintiesin a way that enables sound decision-making. It is necessary to i) identify sources of uncertainty, ii) reduce these where possible, and then iii) manage residual and unavoidable uncertainty. The latter step is a key challenge for policy development and decision-making. General approaches for managing uncertaintyare outlined in this article, including adaptive management, the precautionary principle, and several risk management approaches. We then consider the way the Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA) incorporates management of uncertaintyinto legislative decision-making in New Zealand. First, we evaluate the decision-making processes and tools available in the planning and resource consent provisions of the RMA. Second, we examine the implementation of RMA provisions in three recent case studies. Overall, we conclude that the RMA provides an adequate framework for managing scientific uncertaintyand potentially making sound decisions for environmental management. However, the existence of the frame work does not guarantee effective implementation. There is room to improve understanding of available methods for managing uncertainty, in order to bridge the gap between the existence of the policy framework and practical implementation. It is proposed that national guidelines would assist in this objective.