Reducing uncertainty of estimated nitrogen load reductions to aquatic systems through spatially targeting agricultural mitigation measures using groundwater nitrogen reduction

Abstract The need to further abate agricultural nitrate (N)-loadings to coastal waters in Denmark represents the main driver for development of a new spatially targeted regulation that focus on locating N-mitigation measures in agricultural areas with high N-load. This targeting makes use of the spatial variation across the landscape in natural N- reduction(denitrification) of leached nitrate in the groundwater and surface water systems. A critical basis for including spatial targeting in regulation of N-load in Denmark is the uncertainty associated with the effect of spatially targeting measures, since the effect will be critically affected by uncertainty in the quantification of the spatial variation in N- reduction. In this study, we used 30 equally plausible N- reductionmaps, at 100 m grid and sub-catchment resolutions, for the 85-km 2 groundwater dominated Norsminde catchment in Denmark, applying set-asideas the measure on high N-load areas to reach a N-load reductiontarget of 20%. The uncertainty on these N- reductionmaps resulted in uncertainty on the estimated N-load and on the required set-asidearea. We tested several methods for spatially targeting set-asidethat took into account the uncertainty on set-asidearea and developed methods to reduce uncertainty on the estimated N-load reductions. These methods includes application of set-asidebased on each individual N- reductionmap compared to a mean N- reductionmap, using spatial frequencyof high N-load and using spatial frequencyof low N- reduction. The results revealed that increasing the ensemble size for averaging the N- reductionmaps would decrease the uncertainty on the estimated set-asidearea with a stable effect when using an ensemble of 15 or more maps. The spatial resolution of the groundwater N- reductionmap is essential for the effectiveness of set-aside, but uncertainty of the finer spatial resolution of N- reductionis greater compared to sub-catchment scale, and application of a spatially targeted strategy with uncertain N- reductionmaps will result in incorrect set-asidearea and uncertain estimations of N-load reductions. To reduce the uncertainty on estimated N-load reductions, this study finds the method of set-asideapplication based on spatial frequencyof high N-load to be more effective than other methods tested.