Airtankers and wildfire management in the US Forest Service: examining data availability and exploring usage and cost trends

Evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft is a crucial component of strategic wildfire management and planning. In this manuscript, we focus on the economics of fire and aviation management within the US Forest Service. Substantial uncertainties challenge comprehensive analysis of airtanker use, prompting calls from federal oversight agencies for improved aerial firefighting data collection and analysis. Here, we explore the availability and sufficiency of agency aviation data to track airtanker use and cost trends, and to categorise airtankerusebymissiontypeandfiresizeclass.Althoughtheprimaryintendeduseoftheairtankerfleetisforinitialattack ofwildfires,ourresultsindicatethattheuseoftheseaircrafttendstooccurforextendedattackorlarge-firesupport,witha significant number of flights associated with very large fires greater than 4047ha (10000 acres). Our results highlight apparent trends in airtanker use that challenge our ability to evaluate cost-effectiveness of airtankers. Data quality and availability issues limited our analysis, leading to a recommendation for improved data collection on flight objective and drop location. We conclude by offering suggested avenues of future research that may help address informational and analytical shortcomings.