Seasonal predictability of winter ENSO types in operational dynamical model predictions

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) events of recent decades have been divided into the two different types based on their spatial patterns, the Eastern Pacific (EP) type and Central Pacific (CP) type. Their most significant difference is the distinguished zonal center locations of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. In this study, based on six operational climate models, we evaluate predictability of the two types of ENSO events in winter to examine whether dynamical predictions can distinguish between the two spatial patterns at lead timeof 1 month and tell us more than simply whether an event is on the way. We show that winter EP and CP El Ninoand La Ninaevents can only be distinguished in a minority of these models at 1-month lead, and the EP type tends to has a more realistic zonal positions of SST pattern centers than the CP type. Compared to the SST patterns, the differences between the two types are less apparent in precipitation especially for the two La Ninatypes in the models. Examinations of the extratropical teleconnectionsto the two ENSO types show that some of the models can reproduce the differences between EP and CP teleconnections. Evaluations of model predictions show that the EP El Ninoevent has the same level hit ratewith the CP El Ninoand the CP La Ninaevent has much higher hit ratethan the EP La Nina. While the multi-model ensemble increases Nino index prediction skill, it does not help to improve forecast skillof center longitude index of the SST patterns and distinguish the two types of ENSO events. Although ENSO skill is very high at this lead time, the rapid loss of the initialized information on the different ENSO types in most of the models severely limits the predictability of the two types of winter ENSO events and more research is needed to improve the performance of climate modelsin forecasting the two ENSO types.