Evaluating integrated impacts of low-emission transitions in the livestock sector

Abstract This paper provides the results of a combined qualitative and quantitative assessment of key impacts for two low-emission transition pathways for the Dutch livestock sector. These impacts or side-effects can be positive or negative. Both pathways were designed to meet a sector specific methane emission reduction target of 33 % in 2030 (relative to 2005). The qualitative assessment with stakeholders resulted in developing off-model quantifications to better reflect expected changes in system dynamics and development of more realistic transition pathways used for macro-econometric (E3ME) and atmospheric (TM5-FASST) modelling. We found that each low-emission transition pathway has a unique footprint of positive and negative impacts. This footprint is largely shaped by the combination of existing and new technologies, infrastructure used, and practices deployed. We consider the analysis and results relevant for climate policy and governance processes where there is a need to develop transition pathways that are optimised to meet different sustainable development goals.