Geo-CropSim: A Geo-spatial crop simulation modeling framework for regional scale crop yield and water use assessment

Abstract Remote sensing derived datasets (e.g. Leaf Area Index (LAI)) are increasingly being used in process based cropping system models to improve the prediction skill of the simulations when implementing operationally at regional scale. However, challenges such as inadequate quality of the available remote sensing data products and high reliance of models on climate variables and their uncertainties still exist. To address these challenges, we developed Geo-CropSim, a spatial modeling framework to use high quality remote sensing products in the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agroecosystem model to regulate simulated processes and improve predictions of crop yield and evapotranspiration. Geo-CropSim comprises three main features 1) pixel level model initialization using crop emergence dates; 2) ability of the EPIC model to read in the PROSAIL (i.e. combined PROSPECT leaf optical properties model and SAIL canopy bidirectional reflectance model) inversion-based crop type LAI; and 3) a stress adjustment function to regulate simulated stress using LAI anomalies. To understand its performance, we implemented it over the State of Nebraska to estimate corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max [Merr.]) yields and evapotranspiration (ET) for 2012 (drought year) and 2015 (normal year) at 500-m resolution. Results showed that emergence dates and seasonal LAI captured spatial and temporal differences in crop progression (e.g. delayed planting in 2015) and growth (e.g. declined LAI in 2012) driven by regional differences in crop management and weather conditions very well. These differences were reflected in Geo-CropSim yield estimates, and showed improved spatial and temporal details compared over those from EPIC simulations obtained without using remote sensing derived emergence and LAI. Results revealed that Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of Geo-CropSim yield estimates, computed based on USDA-NASS reported yields, were 18.85% and 1.22 Mg ha−1 for corn, and 17.90% and 0.46 Mg ha−1 for soybeans, respectively, which are substantially lower than those of original EPIC estimates (MAPE = 33.74% and RMSE = 2.18 Mg ha−1 for corn; and MAPE = 40.71% and RMSE = 0.98 Mg ha−1 for soybeans). Further, Geo-CropSim was able to capture ET and transpiration dynamics reasonably well (e.g. 10–12 % lower values for soybeans compared to corn values), and showed good agreement with flux measurements (i.e. R2 values of 0.63 and 0.72, RMSE values of 29.88 and 33.41 mm, and MAPE values of 5.0% and 6.8% for corn and soybean, respectively). Overall, this study demonstrated that Geo-CropSim has considerable potential to serve as a reliable operational tool to assess crop yields and water use under various cropping systems and to help in regional yield monitoring and water resource management.