Spatial forest vulnerability profile of major forest types in Indian Western Himalaya

Abstract Forest vulnerability assessment with ground realities/ data has great implications for adaptation and management planning at local and regional scale. However, such assessments are still limited across globe including the Himalaya. In view of this, present study derived a spatial map of inherent forest vulnerability using ground based observation and information in the western Himalaya. Based on literature and data availability, we selected nine forest vulnerability indicators under four domains i.e., ecological (species richness, and NDVI), climate (temperature, rainfall), topographic (slope, aspect, elevation), disturbances (forest fragmentation) and social (population density). Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), which is a multi-criteria decision method, was used for weighting the vulnerability indicators. Based on AHP, forest vulnerability index (FVI) was developed using general linear model approach. The FVI index was further classified into four different categories i.e., low, medium, high and very high. The results revealed maximum (37%) forest grids under medium vulnerable profile followed by 31% (high) and 21% (low) vulnerable grids. In general, temperate and mixed forests show higher forest vulnerability in the region, whereas subtropical pine, broadleaf and subalpine forests falls under lesser vulnerable forest grids. These results exhibited that elevation (15.4%), population density (15.1%), slope (14.5%), rainfall (13.7%), forest fragmentation (12.9%), temperature (12.3), and aspect (11.4%) are the major drivers of forest vulnerability, particularly for the Himalayan region. To validate the results, we compared the developed FVI in present study with ground based FVI already generated in previous studies from the region, and found higher similarity in the assessments. The spatial forest vulnerability maps generated in the present study provides a realistic profile of vulnerable forests in Indian western Himalaya, which can be used for developing adaptation measure and management planning.