Re-parameterisation of a mathematical model of African horse horse sickness virus using data from a systematic literature search

African horse sickness (AHS) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by Culicoides 8 spp., endemic to sub-Saharan Africa. There have been many examples of historic and re-9 cent outbreaks in the Middle East, Asia and Europe. However, not much is known about 10 infection dynamics and outbreak potential in these naive populations. In order to better in-11 form a previously published ordinary differential equation model, we performed a systematic 12 literature search to identify studies documenting experimental infection of naive (control) 13 equids in vaccination trials. Data on the time until the onset of viraemia, clinical signs and 14 death after experimental infection of a naive equid and duration of viraemia were extracted. 15 The time to viraemia was 4.6 days and the time to clinical signs was 4.9 days, longer than 16 the previously estimated latent period of 3.7 days. The infectious periods of animals that 17 died/were euthanised or survived were found to be 3.9 and 8.7 days, whereas previous es-18 timations were 4.4 and 6 days, respectively. The case fatality was also found to be higher 19 than previous estimations. The updated parameter values (along with other more recently 20 published estimates from literature) resulted in an increase in the number of host deaths, 21 decrease in the duration of the outbreak, and greater prevalence in vectors. 22