Stochastic Spectral Method for Radar-Based Probabilistic Precipitation Nowcasting

AbstractNowcasts (short-term forecasts) of heavy rainfall causing flash floods are highly valuable in densely populated urban areas. In the Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) project, a high-resolution X-band radar network was deployed in the Dallas Fort-Worth (DFW) metroplex. The Dynamic and Adaptive Radar Tracking of Storms (DARTS) method was developed as a part of the CASA nowcasting system. In this method, the advection field is determined in the spectral domain using the discrete Fourier transform. DARTS was recently extended to include a filtering scheme for suppressing small-scale precipitation features that have low predictability. Building on the earlier work, S-DARTS, a probabilistic extension of DARTS is developed and tested using the CASA DFW radar network. In this method, the nowcasts are stochastically perturbed in order to simulate uncertainties. Two novel features are introduced in S-DARTS. First, the scale filtering and perturbation based on an autoregressive model ar...