CBR Confidence as a Basis for Confidence in Black Box Systems

Determining when to trust black box systems is a well-known challenge. An important factor affecting users’ trust is confidence in system solutions. Previous case-based reasoning (CBR) research has developed criteria for assigning confidence to the solutions of a CBR system. This paper investigates whether such analysis, coupled with factors such as CBR system competence, can be used to predict confidence in the outputs of a black box system, when the black box and CBR systems are provided with the same training data. The paper presents initial strategies for using CBR confidence to predict black box system confidence. An evaluation explores the ability of the strategies to provide useful information and suggests future questions.