Does Agriculture Matter for Economic Development? Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

In this study we aimed at answering the question, ‘Does agriculturematter for economic development in Nigeria?’ Life expectancyis modeled against agriculturaloutput and agriculturalexpenditure, amongst other variables. Agriculturaloutput is also modeled against a host of socio-economic, natural and human factors, which influence agriculturalproductivity. Applying Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, Ordinary Least Squares, and the Newey-West method on secondary data and dummy variableused in the study, it was found that agriculturaloutput has negative and significant impact on life expectancyin Nigeria. The impact of agriculturalexpenditure was found to be positive but nonsignificant. Real gross domestic productand industrial output were also found to influence life expectancy. Careful examination of the hypothesized socio-economic factors (political instability and industrial output), natural factor (rainfall), and human factor (carbon emission) showed that only industrial output and rainfall matter for agriculturaloutput in the country: both variables have positive impacts on agriculturaloutput. The study submits that as much as agriculturemay matter for economic development, reliance on the sector alone without corresponding and simultaneous development of other crucial sectors such as education, health, and industry will not yield positive fruits for economic development in Nigeria.