A Population Model Exploring Factors Influencing Black Oystercatcher (Haematopus bachmani) Population Dynamics

Abstract. Count data suggest that Black Oystercatcher (Haematopus bachmani) has locally variable but globally stable populations. A simple, stage-based matrix population model for Black Oystercatcher was built and Monte Carlo simulations of the model were conducted using vital rates from peer-reviewed and gray literature. Simulations yielded a distribution of potential population growth rates that extended from 0.87 to 1.14 and was centered at 1.00, supporting the hypothesis of a globally stable Black Oystercatcher population. Sensitivity and elasticity analyses of the population model showed that potential population growth is particularly sensitive to changes in hatching success (i.e., proportion of eggs hatched), fledging success (i.e., proportion of chicks fledged), and breeding adult annual survival. These rates could be possible targets for population management should it become necessary given future changes in sea temperature, sea level, and coastal development. Pair productivity, which integrates...