Assessment of Puff-Dispersion Variability Through Lagrangian and Eulerian Modelling Based on the JU2003 Campaign

In the framework of the Urban Dispersion International Evaluation Exercise (UDINEE) project coordinated by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, a case study was conducted of the Joint Urban 2003 (JU2003) experimental campaign in the central area of Oklahoma City, USA. The UDINEE project concerned the cases of puff dispersion of the JU2003 campaign, which are of special interest to scenarios related to security studies, such as explosions of radiological dispersal devices. Starting from the fact that puff-dispersion variability is substantial, especially in complex urban areas, even for puffs released under similar meteorological conditions, a methodology is presented for assessing this variability, which is applied to the dispersion of puffs in two of the intensive operation periods of the JU2003 campaign. Lagrangian and Eulerian dispersion models are applied for the simulations. For the Lagrangian model, variability is assessed by repeating the computations a large number of times. For the Eulerian model, variability is assessed by constructing probability density functions of concentrations on the basis of the dispersion-model results. Peak concentrations, dosages, puff-arrival times and puff durations are considered. Percentiles calculated by the Lagrangian model for all the above quantities and by the Eulerian model for peak concentrations and dosages are compared with the measurements. The results are encouraging since in several cases the measured and computed ranges of values overlap.