Predictions of mortality related to four major cancers in China, 2020 to 2030.

BACKGROUND Cancer has become a global health problem, and assessments of cancer mortality are important for effective public health policy-making and adequate resource allocation. In this study, we aimed to predict the mortality rates and numbers of deaths related to four common cancers (lung, liver, stomach, and esophagus) in China from 2020 to 2030 and to estimate the corresponding cancer burden caused by population aging and tobacco smoking. METHODS Cancer mortality data (2004-2017) were extracted from China's death surveillance datasets, and China's population figures (2020-2030) were obtained from the United Nations population projections. Smoking prevalence data were retrieved from a World Health Organization global report, and relative risks of smoking and cancers were derived from large-scale Asian studies. We predicted the deaths related to the four major cancers and age-standardized mortality rates using joinpoint regression and linear regression models. The tobacco smoking-related burden of these four major cancers was estimated using the population attributable fraction. RESULTS Unlike lung cancer mortality which was predicted to continue to increase, the age-standardized mortality rates for digestive cancers (liver, stomach, and esophageal cancers) are predicted to decline over the next decade. The number of deaths caused by the four major cancers is predicted to increase from 1,490,304 in 2020 to 1,823,960 in 2030. The age-specific mortality rates of the four major cancers are predicted to increase with age after 40-45 years, peaking in the age groups of 80-84 and ≥85 years. In 2030, the combined number of deaths from the four examined cancers among adults aged ≥65 years is predicted to be 1,167,153, accounting for 64% of all deaths from these cancers. Tobacco smoking is predicted to contribute to nearly 29% of deaths from these cancers, corresponding to 527,577 deaths. CONCLUSIONS The overall trend in the combined total mortality from four major cancers is predicted to decline over the next decade; however, the corresponding death toll is expected to surge, in the context of China's population aging and high smoking prevalence. These estimates provide data-driven evidence for China to implement effective cancer control measures in the future.