Landscape patterns of bioenergy in a changing climate: implications for crop allocation and land‐use competition

Rural landscapes face changing climate, shifting development pressure, and loss of agricultural land. Perennial bioenergycrops grown on existing agricultural landmay provide an opportunity to conserve rural landscapes while addressing increased demand for biofuels. However, increased bioenergyproduction and changing land use raise concerns for tradeoffs within the food-energy-environment trilemma. Heterogeneity of climate, soils, and land use complicate assessment of bioenergypotential in complex landscapes creating challenges to evaluating future tradeoffs. The hypothesis addressed herein is that perennial bioenergyproduction can provide an opportunity to avoid agricultural landconversion to development. Using a process-based crop model, we assessed potential bioenergycrop growth through 2100 in a southern Appalachian Mountain region and asked: (1) how mean annual yield differed among three crops (switchgrass, giant miscanthus, and hybrid poplar) under current climate and climate change scenarios...