Genetically predicted serum vitamin D and COVID-19: a Mendelian randomization study

Objectives: To investigate causality of the association of serum vitamin D with the risk and severity of COVID-19 infection. Design: Two-sample Mendelian randomization study. Setting: Summary data from genome-wide analyses in the population-based UK Biobank and SUNLIGHT Consortium, applied to meta-analyzed results of genome-wide analyses in the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative. Participants: 17,965 COVID-19 cases including 11,085 laboratory or physician confirmed cases, 7,885 hospitalized cases, and 4,336 severe respiratory cases, and 1,370,547 controls, primarily of European ancestry. Exposures: Genetically predicted variation in serum vitamin D status, based on genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with serum vitamin D or risk of vitamin D deficiency/insufficiency. Main outcome measures: Susceptibility to and severity of COVID-19 infection, including severe respiratory infection and hospitalization. Results: Mendelian randomization analysis, powered to detect moderate effects comparable to those seen in observational studies, provided little to no evidence for an effect of genetically predicted serum vitamin D on susceptibility to or severity of COVID-19 infection. Using SNPs in loci related to vitamin D metabolism as proxies for serum vitamin D concentration, the odds ratio for a standard deviation increase in serum vitamin D was 1.04 (95% confidence interval 0.92 to 1.18) for any COVID-19 infection versus population controls, 1.05 (0.84-1.31) for hospitalized COVID-19 versus population controls, 0.96 (0.64 to 1.43) for severe respiratory COVID-19 versus population controls, 1.15 (0.99 to 1.35) for COVID-19 positive versus COVID-19 negative, and 1.44 (0.75 to 2.78) for hospitalized COVID-19 versus non-hospitalized COVID-19. Results were similar in analyses that used all SNPs with genome-wide significant associations with serum vitamin D (i.e., including SNPs in loci with no known relationship to vitamin D metabolism) and in analyses using SNPs with genome-wide significant associations with risk of vitamin D deficiency or insufficiency. Conclusions: These findings suggest that genetically predicted differences in long-term vitamin D nutritional status do not causally affect susceptibility to and severity of COVID-19 infection, and that associations observed in previous studies may have been driven by confounding. These results do not exclude the possibility of low-magnitude causal effects, nor do they preclude potential causal effects of acute responses to therapeutic doses of vitamin D. Future directions include extension of this work to non-European ancestry populations, and high-risk populations, for example persons with comorbid disease.