The impact on global wood-product markets of increasing consumption of wood pellets within the European Union

Abstract The targets for renewable energy set by the European Union have resulted in a surge in consumption of wood pellets, and the demand is expected to further increase the next decade. We use economic modelling to assess the impact on global wood-based product markets of gradually increasing wood pelletsconsumption within the EU. Comparing a scenario wherein consumption is determined exclusively by market forces with one where EU consumption is set to double between 2015 and 2030, we characterize the deviation from the unregulated market equilibrium that would attain. Our results highlight the necessity of assessing market impactsover time, with a sufficient geographical disaggregation. An increased EU demand for wood pelletswould, apart from increased EU production, results in increased imports. The main sources are projected to be Russia, Canada, and, particularly, the USA. The results indicate synergies and competition between wood-based products and wood pellets. In general sawmilling stand to gain from increased wood pellets' consumption, while the opposite holds for wood-based panels and most paper grades. Due to the feedstock mix used in production of wood pelletsand wood-based products, effects vary over time and among different EU members, as well as between EU and other regions.