By 2050, a Possible Strengthening of the Regional Dependence on Agricultural Imports

As we highlighted in the previous chapter, the large increase in agricultural imports in the Middle East-North Africa region between 1961 and 2011 is the result of a combination of several factors. A population explosion has combined with dietary changes and has led to a strong growth in demand for food and feed. Growth in regional agricultural production, although significant, could not meet this demand, in particular because of insufficient improvements in yields, and the limited availabilityof cultivable land and access to water for irrigation. The extension of these past trends for each component of the regional agricultural and food system, which we will now examine in terms of the effects on the balance between food needs and agricultural resources in 2050, is likely to result in a strengthening of the dependence on imports.