Impact of climate change on the fishery of Indian mackerel (Rastrelliger kanagurta) along the Kerala coast off the southeastern Arabian Sea

Abstract Climate change impact varies at regional as well as species level and accordingly research needs to be focused on exploring the region-wise influence of oceanographic variations on key marine species. The present study depicts the annual and decadal fluctuations in Indian mackerel fishery along Kerala coast of south eastern Arabian Sea over a time period of 31 years (1985–2016), its relationship between four major oceanographic variables (SST, Pr, SSS and SSC) and future predictions under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Coast specific changes of these oceanographic variables since 1960 provide a baseline status of the existing climatic conditions of the marine ecosystem of the SEAS whereas, the RCP projections till 2100 provide an insight to the future conditions. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) has been used to comprehend the relation among the Weighted CPUE (cpue) and Relative effort (Effort) of Indian mackerel and the four major oceanographic variables. The GAM model could explain 68.9 % and 71.1 % deviance of cpue and Effort respectively. The significance of the most influential oceanographic variables on the cpue of Indian mackerel were in the order SST > Pr > SSC > SSS and for Effort were in the order Pr > SST > SSS > SSC. The projected cpue and Effort of Indian mackerel exhibits varying trends under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0 scenarios. The future catch potential of Indian mackerel predicted under both RCP scenarios for the period 2020–2100 also show reduction, with the latter exhibiting a more drastic reduction. The study implies that for sustainable long-term fishery and to reduce the impact of climate change on Indian mackerel, the fishing pressure has to be maintained at low and healthy level.