Regional Climate Change and Uncertainty Analysis based on Four Regional Climate Model Simulations over China

AbstractFour sets of climate change simulations at grid spacing of 50 km were conducted over East Asia with two regional climate models driven at the lateral boundaries by two global models for the period 1981–2050. The focus of the study was on the ensemble projection of climate change in the mid-21st century (2031–50) over China. Validation of each simulation and the ensemble average showed good performances of the models overall, as well as advantages of the ensemble in reproducing present day (1981–2000) December–February (DJF), June–August (JJA), and annual (ANN) mean temperature and precipitation. Significant warming was projected for the mid-21st century, with larger values of temperature increase found in the northern part of China and in the cold seasons. The ensemble average changes of precipitation in DJF, JJA, and ANN were determined, and the uncertainties of the projected changes analyzed based on the consistencies of the simulations. It was concluded that the largest uncertainties in precipi...