A robust initialization method for accurate soil organic carbon simulations

Abstract. Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are a major source of uncertainty for the evolution of atmospheric CO2 concentration during the 21st century. They are usually simulated by models dividing SOC into conceptual pools with contrasted turnover times. The lack of reliable methods to initialize these models, by correctly distributing soil carbon amongst their kinetic pools, strongly limits the accuracy of their simulations. Here, we demonstrate that PARTYsoc, a machine-learning model based on Rock-Eval® thermal analysis optimally partitions the active and stable SOC pools of AMG, a simple and well validated SOC dynamics model, accounting for effects of soil management history. Furthermore, we found that initializing the SOC pool sizes of AMG using machine-learning strongly improves its accuracy when reproducing the observed SOC dynamics in nine independent French long-term agricultural experiments. Our results indicate that multi-compartmental models of SOC dynamics combined with a robust initialization can simulate observed SOC stock changes with excellent precision. We recommend exploring their potential before a new generation of models of greater complexity becomes operational. The approach proposed here can be easily implemented on soil monitoring networks, paving the way towards precise predictions of SOC stock changes over the next decades.