Reforestation reversals and forest transitions

Abstract Forest transitions in Latin America have long been presumed to be characterized by progressively stable, expansive reforestation. Numerous studies note a dynamism surrounding reforestation, however, including associations with forest loss. Such apparent contradictions were recently underscored by descriptions of Latin American ‘reforestation reversals’ – marked declines in forest cover following net reforestation. Reversals arguably challenge classical perspectives on forest transitions while predominating within regional forest-transition epicenters. Potential reversal dynamics, still subject to speculation, bring into focus the shortcoming of recent forest-transition scholarship, particularly its reliance on generic satellite observation and neglect of land-use transitions shaping, and sustaining, reforestation. To catalyze research in this domain, I explore reversals in relation to land-change dynamics commonly linked to reforestation. I further frame reversals as inherent features of emergent tropical forest transitions, advancing a ‘pulsed’ forest-transition model and emphasizing that apparent reversals may not entail waning reforestation trajectories. A greater embrace of systematic, historical case studies parsing reforestation between land use and disuse is key to a fuller understanding of both forest transitions and reversals.