Analysis of Climate Variability, Trends and expected implication on crop production in a Semi-Arid Environment of Machakos County, Kenya

Climate variability and change are among the greatest hindrance to the realization of the Rio +20 declaration addressed by Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the New Partnershipfor Africa’s Development(NEPAD’s) Initiatives on “Food for All” and the planned Kenyan vision 2030 of transforming Kenyato self-reliance in food production since it directly influences agricultural production and community livelihoods. Knowledge of climate variability is currently of remarkable importance in Kenya, where agriculture is the driver of its economy contributing approximately 26 % of the Gross Domestic Product. This study investigated the extent of the temporal variability and trends of rainfall, temperature and their effect on crop production for the period (1981 to 2013) in Machakos County, Kenya. The findings show that the March to May (MAM) seasonis characterized by high variations seasonalrainfall compared to the October to December (OND) seasonin the study area, but with low variability in both seasonaland annual temperatures. The results also showed insignificant trends for the intra seasonalrainfall characteristics. However, significant decreasing trends of rainfall at seasonaland annual scales were recorded at two stations out of the three studied (Iveti and Machakos DO station). Results of the maximum (minimum) temperature show significant increase during the MAM (OND) seasonand at annual scale.