Recent Kyagar glacier lake outburst flood frequency in Chinese Karakoram unprecedented over the last two centuries

Kyagar glacier lake outburst floods(GLOFs) have long been a serious nature hazardin Yarkant river basins of the Chinese Karakoram, threatening more than one million people. Between 1810 and 2018, 34 Kyagar GLOF events have been recorded, of which 26 occurred from 1960 onwards and their occurrence frequency reaches at least three times in each decade. An early warning systemestablished in 2011 has successfully predicted the Kyagar GLOF events in 2015, 2016, 2017 and 2018, which provides an important reference for the monitoring and risk pre-evaluation of the GLOFs in Karakoram.