A Bayesian Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial Comparing Antimetabolite Therapies for Non-Infectious Uveitis

ABSTRACTPurpose: To conduct a Bayesian analysis of a randomized clinical trial (RCT) for non-infectious uveitisusing expert opinion as a subjective prior belief.Methods: A RCT was conducted to determine which antimetabolite, methotrexate or mycophenolatemofetil, is more effective as an initial corticosteroid-sparing agent for the treatment of intermediate, posterior, and pan- uveitis. Before the release of trial results, expert opinion on the relative effectiveness of these two medications was collected via online survey. Members of the American UveitisSociety executive committee were invited to provide an estimate for the relative decrease in efficacy with a 95% credible interval(CrI). A prior probabilitydistribution was created from experts’ estimates. A Bayesian analysis was performed using the constructed expert prior probabilitydistribution and the trial’s primary outcome.Results: A total of 11 of the 12 invited uveitisspecialists provided estimates. Eight of 11 experts (73%) believed mycopheno...