Contribution of ionospheric TEC anomalies to detecting the seismic precursors related to the 2008 Oran-Algeria event

Abstract The ionospheric anomalies observed before any notable earthquake have become the subject of predictive research in the field of seismo-ionospheric coupling and/or Solid Earth-Atmosphere. In this paper, the concept of ionospheric modeling has been applied using total electronic content (TEC); derived from dual-frequency GPS recordings from about sixty permanent geodetic stations. The study and the analysis of the anomalous TEC variations, quantifiable on a regional scale, allowed us to detect the principal precursors of the Mw 5.5 earthquake that hit Oran on June 06th, 2008. The envisaged analytical approach is based principally on the time delays estimation relating to the seismic responses from the triggering (lithospheric seismic source) until their recording in data Rinex (GPS_IGS stations) through the reflection system of the electromagnetic waves on the ionospheric level (F2-layer). Indeed, in term of location, the longitude-latitude coordinates of the Oran event epicenter (0.658 ° W, 35.883 ° N) affecting the coastal margin of Western Algeria without too much material damage. Although the magnitude of this earthquake is qualified moderate (Mw 5.5, seismic intensity scale V-VI), one can observe apparent disturbances in the terrestrial electromagnetic spectrum associated with ionospheric TEC variations. In the domain of geodetic data analysis, we have noted a significant increase in the ionospheric TEC, which announces the arrival of a seismic precursor several days before the main studied event. Against this background, we emphasize that any seismic event, of significant magnitude, often carries information associated with other variants involved in the package of earthquake studied. Among these variants we evoke the effect of the magnetic field and the effect of the surrounding environment, etc. As for the specific behavior of the GPS_TEC signal, obtained from the Rinex data, and its interaction with the associated seismic activity, we highlight the existence of a spectral conformity between the geomagnetic field and that of the TEC content (spontaneous polarization of the TEC). Finally, we have just confirmed the effectiveness of this forecasting approach which relates the seismo-ionospheric precursors that are embedded in the physical trace of the electromagnetic signal relative to significant and / or moderate earthquakes (M ≥ 5); such as the envisaged case of the 2008 Oran event.